(Dr S. Chandrasekharan writes in South Asia Analysis Group.)

In the three weeks since the cessation of cease fire between the government and the Maoists, there has been a spate of incidents and many of them took place in Kathmandu itself. There have been attacks on solitary police posts, banks, army patrols and killings. One senior army colonel was killed and another seriously injured. There was dusk to dawn curfew in many places in Kathmandu. Curfew was imposed in other places too. There were ban orders on meetings and processions in Kathmandu to prevent untoward incidents during the seventh phase of agitation by the political parties who are continuing with their confrontation against what they call the "October 4" regression, when the King formally took over the administration. Some private schools under threat earlier have again been forced to be closed as the students sympathetic to Maoist cause have demanded a restructuring of the fees of such schools.

There have been casualties from both the army and the Maoists, though information relating to such casualties is coming in from the government sources only and the casualties from among the Maoists could be a little exaggerated. A list of incidents as known since the cease fire is given as an Appendix. This will be updated periodically.

Kathmandu, the residents say, is in the grip of a panic with curfew, demonstrations and explosions at some prominent places. The situation is not out of control as yet and the attempt of the government appears to be to consolidate its position in the valley. Many thinly occupied police posts in remote places have been closed. There is no information on the situation in the Maoist strongholds of the central region like Rolpa, Rukum and Jajarkot where even the army is thinly spread.

Prime Minister Thapa addresses the nation: On the eve of the seventh phase of the agitation of the political parties and in view of the deteriorating law and order situation, Thapa appealed to the political parties to postpone their agitation considering the gravity of the situation that had developed after the cessation of the cease fire. He pointed out that the agitation would only help the extra constitutional forces and that the issues raised could be addressed through "dialogue, understanding and cooperation." One significant statement made by him was that his government "will now confine its efforts to maintain law and order and hold general elections."

His address did not directly address the two points that were repeatedly made out by the five agitating political parties- of restoration of the House and the formation of an interim government from among the political parties.

Even the option of going for elections directly is not a viable one right now considering the law and order situation with the troops and the police stretched out throughout the Kingdom. Probably it is a threat to both the Maoists who were at one point keen to contest elections ( though for different reasons) and the political parties who have hardly stirred out for political work.

Thapa also met the individual leaders of the agitating parties particularly, G.P.Koirala and Madhav Nepal, and urged them to participate in the government rather than continue with their agitation. The leaders refused to join and stuck to their old demands.

The seventh phase of agitation started on 4th September ended peacefully on 10th September. Though the leaders and their supporters defied the prohibition orders banning assembly in public places, the government took care by not arresting the top- leaders and letting off other demonstrators on the same day without registering cases. What was noticeable was that while the Nepali Congress leaders and their workers took the lead in the first few days, the UML was seen to be more active in the last two days. At any rate, the agitation has lost its momentum and the people just do not appear to care though it does create problems for the public during rush hours in towns like Kathmandu.

Despite the media reports that reconciliation steps are afoot, the agitating political parties are planning for their eighth phase starting from 23rd and 24th with demonstrations.

The Maoists have already announced a general strike from September 17 to 19.

It is now more than six months since Prime minister Thapa took over and yet he has not been able to form a truly representative government with the participation of all parties. At the time of his appointment it was thought that if there was one person who could form a representative government, it was he and there were hopes that he would be able to manage. It now looks that Thapa will not be able to rope in others as the political parties are still insisting on the restoration of the House of representatives and an all party government with the leadership of the agitating parties.

With cessation of cease fire and numerous incidents that followed, Thapa’s time will be fully taken up in maintaining law and order. He made another attempt this week to talk to the political leaders but so far there has been no breakthrough. The ambassadors of USA and UK have been quietly meeting the political leaders as well as the ministers to find an acceptable solution. They have appealed to the political leaders to brush aside their differences and seek a solution for promoting peace.

The King has since returned from London and the political parties are hoping that he would take the initiative to resolve the current `impasse’. They also expect to the King to invite them for a dialogue. There are no indications that he would relent and restore the democratic process.

The stand off between the political parties and the King would only benefit the Maoists. There are only three major groups now in Nepal who are relevant in the current situation. The King and those who continue to be loyal to him, the political parties and the Maoists. Of these only the King and the political parties can come together. This should be apparent to anyone following the events in Nepal. There is therefore no alternative but the political parties and the King to come together if they are to combat the Maoist problem. With both standing on high perch, with the political parties refusing to join the Thapa government and the King unwilling to hand over power to the agitating political parties, the unstable conditions now seen will continue. The army which has to bear the brunt of the operations against the Maoists needs clear political direction and it cannot otherwise succeed. No one wants the Maoists to succeed!

What are the options left? The political parties are keen to meet the King and discuss ways to find a solution to the present impasse. The steps could be

* The King could initiate steps to form a representative government of all parties who had members in the dissolved House and allow them to elect their leader. Restoration of the House could then be thought of.

* In the alternative, restore the status quo ante letting Deuba to take over. As Deuba will have no majority support, the parties will certainly have to come to a compromise and choose another leader. Thus the constitution will be back on its rails and let the people’s representatives take over the responsibility. There may be some constitutional hurdles in restoring the house. The best way could be for the King to make a reference to the Supreme Court and go by its verdict. Then it will not be seen as a "come down" by the King.

The position of India: It is ironic that India’s position vis a vis Nepal had to be clearly spelt out by Christina Rocca of US. She said in a meeting at New Delhi on 11th September "India’s historic, cultural and social ties with Nepal continue to make it the most important outside influence on events in that country." A veteran analyst stationed in Kathmandu who has been watching the developments in Nepal said that the situation now in Nepal is similar to the 1950 revolution, when King Tribhuvan had to seek shelter in the Indian embassy and India had to directly intervene with the King, the Ranas and the political parties to arrive at a solution. It may be in the interest of India itself to take a more pro active role and get the political parties and the King together to find a solution.

(See list of incidents at Appendix )