American Political Scientist’s Lok Sabha Poll Prediction

Ian Bremmer is an American political scientist and risk analyst.


The BJP will win 305 (+/- 10) seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, American political scientist and global political risk consultant Ian Bremmer told NDTV Profit in an exclusive interview on Tuesday.

Sir. Bremmer, the founder of Eurasia Group, a risk and research consultancy, also said that from a global political perspective, the Indian election is “the only thing that looks stable and consistent…every other (including US) election in November ) is problematic”.

“… We have a tremendous amount of macro-level geopolitical uncertainty, and the future of globalization is not going the way business wants it to. Politics is inserting itself into the global marketplace… wars, US-China relations, and the US election are all a big part of it,” he said.

“All these are not being managed well and these pressures are more negative. In fact, the only thing that looks stable and consistent, politically, is the election in India. Everything else looks problematic.”

Asked about his prediction for the Indian elections, which are spread over seven phases and began on April 19, Mr Bremmer said Eurasia Group surveys suggest the BJP will win 295-315 seats.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, bidding for a third consecutive term, won the 2014 elections with 282 seats (336 including its NDA partners) and 2019 with 303 (353 with NDA allies).

The BJP is expected to complete its hat-trick this year – a prediction backed by poll strategist Prashant Kishor, who engineered its victory in 2014 – although the Congress-led INDIA bloc is seen as a strong challenge. Domestic political analysts believe the 2024 battle could come down to one big factor – can the opposition eat into the BJP’s fanatical voter base in the Hindi heartland?

Sir. However, Bremmer emphasized that his interest is not in the numbers.

“My interest is that of all the elections in the world (which includes polls in the EU and possibly a national election in the UK), India, which has the largest democracy, has the smoothest transition. There are not many uncertainties about the Indian political system “, he declared.

Sir. Bremmer also hailed the “free and fair and transparent” Indian electoral process.

“Modi will almost certainly win a third term on the back of fairly strong economic performance and consistent reform (and) that, in the grand scheme of things, is a very stabilizing message.”

On India’s economic future, Mr Bremmer said: “The world has seen that India has underperformed for decades. India has incredible demographic weight and very strong intellectual capital… so many US CEOs come from India. Yet India, as an economy , underperformed.”

“Now we see growth picking up. We see India becoming the fourth largest economy in the world, probably next year, and the third largest probably in 2028. But we also see India becoming more powerful in terms of defining its friendship with the rest of the world.”

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