Monsoon likely to reach Kerala around May 31: IMD | Latest News India

The southwest monsoon is expected to begin over Kerala around May 31, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.

Southwest Monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala around May 31.  (HT PHOTO)
Southwest Monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala around May 31. (HT PHOTO)

The southwest monsoon usually sets in over Kerala on 1 June with a standard deviation of about 7 days; then it moves north, usually in waves, covering the entire country around July 15.

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According to IMD projections, this year’s southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over Kerala around May 31 with a model error margin of ± 4 days. This onset date acts as a crucial indicator of the monsoon’s progress across the country, bringing relief from scorching summer temperatures as it heads north.

Read: Extreme heat in April exacerbated by climate crisis: Study

The advanced statistical model incorporates six key predictors to predict the start date, including minimum temperatures over Northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall patterns over the southern peninsula, and various atmospheric parameters over the equatorial southeast Indian Ocean and southwest Pacific.

The IMD said its operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the last 19 years proved correct except in 2015.

Fresh heat wave

Meanwhile, a fresh wave of scorching heat is set to sweep over northwestern and eastern India, beginning May 16, according to the IMD. The heat wave is expected to intensify over various states of northwest India, including West Rajasthan, Punjab, southern Haryana and parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. East Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are also expected to experience severe heatwave conditions during this period.

“Surge conditions very likely in isolated pockets over Gujarat region during 15-17. Konkan on 15th & 16th; Saurashtra & Kutch on 16th & 17th; Delhi, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha on May 18 and 19, 2024,” the IMD said in a release.

Hot and humid weather is expected to prevail over Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Bihar on May 15 and 16.

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